Finance · Economics · Investment · Abu Dhabi

A model is a structured representation of assumptions, not an answer.

I have spent fifteen years looking at capital from different sides: priced in markets, allocated inside companies, invested through deals and projects, and deployed by government. I write about what that teaches you when the assumptions start to move.

Assumption dial · discount rate8.5%

Enterprise valueAED 1.21bn

Change against 7.5%-14.9%

Illustrative: a fixed cash-flow stream, revalued as one input moves. Everything else held constant.

Abu Dhabi Government Tourism sector: economic value maximisation and project investment due diligence Previously G42 · Emirates · Belgrade Stock Exchange CFA CFA Institute London Business School Executive MBA, class of 2027 Edinburgh Business School MSc Investment Management, Distinction Columbia Business School Applied AI and ML models, Executive Education

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Chart of the US federal funds rate against the range prescribed by the Taylor rule since 2000

Monetary policy · Analysis

What the Taylor rule says about the Fed now

A 33-year-old formula is still the benchmark for judging interest rates, and today it points above the Fed's 3.75 to 4 per cent under five of the six versions I tested.

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Policy decisions, market moves and the trends behind them, explained with evidence and a chart anyone can read. Free, straight to your inbox.

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A change in interest rates is a monetary decision, a discount-rate shock, a bond repricing and a change in the required return on private capital, all at once. The interesting questions sit where those meet.

Why I write

About

Capital, seen from several sides.

I am a finance, investment and economic-analysis professional based in Abu Dhabi, with more than fifteen years across capital markets, insurance, consumer goods, aviation, technology and government. Today I work for the Abu Dhabi Government in the tourism sector, where my focus is economic value maximisation and project investment due diligence. The thread through all of it is the same question: does the analysis survive contact with a real decision?

Quantitative work remains central to how I think, from DCF and scenario analysis to forecasting and applied machine learning. But I do not treat a model as the answer. Knowing which assumptions matter, how they respond to the economic environment and where the model can fail is usually worth more than the precision of its output.

Experience and background Read the Review

A neoclassical terrace in London at sunset — London Business School · Executive MBA, class of 2027

Speaking and media

Available for panels, podcasts and guest writing.

Gulf monetary policy and the dollar pegSovereign capitalValuation in practicePublic investment appraisalAI in financial analysis

Invitations and enquiries: hello@zoranninic.com